Introductory Back ground
Unfortunately, NCP has been divided into two main streams against the people’s will. At first, when prime minister KP Oli dissolved the parliament at 5th Poush that consisted of so-called two third majority of NCP in parliament, Nepalese politics was led into another direction. As a result, NCP has been fractioned in two parts – the first NCP led by PM KP Oli and the second NCP led by Madhav – Prachand coalition.
A few critiques define the present step of PM Oli as a “U” turn and regression in the way of Nepalese politics and prosperity that the people of Nepal have ever sought. In the general election in 2017 AD NCP has attained nearly two third of majority in the parliament in Nepalese political history after the election in 2015 B.S. when Nepali Congress had attained two third of majority.
In 2051 BS, when the minority government of Manamohan Adhikari was proposed against vote of confidence by Nepali Congress, Adhikari dissolved the parliament but the supreme court established the parliament by announcing that if there were any alternative to make new government, parliament couldn’t be dissolved. The decision of the Supreme Court is still taken as a constitutional evidence in Nepalese politics. In the chairmanship of Adhikari temporary United Marxist Lelinist had attained 88 seats out of 205 for the mid election.
After the mid election of 2051 B.S., UML had not been the largest party rather it was accused of emerging from Jhapa revolt and not having any concrete socio political principle between Nepalese society and people. During this time the popularity was increasing massively toward either the then Maoist or Nepali Congress. Girija Prasad Koirala had played a vital role to bring Maoist revolutionist into main stream of Nepalese politics along with 12-pointed agreement in Delhi. That is why GP Koirala of Nepali Congress regained his lost political credit within nation and international political and diplomatic world.
Although Madhav Kumar Nepal from the then UML could play very important role as far as possible to bring the Maoist into main stream political, the whole credit of peace process went into the lap of GP Koirala. The then UML missed the opportunity to cash out its hard labor in playing the role for peace process and popularity in Nepalese society into the election of constitutional assembly in 2064 B.S. and got only 34 seats in direct vote by the people out of 601. The constitutional assembly in 2064 B.S. could not draft the constitute of Nepal that the people of Nepal have wished since 2007 B.S. The first constitutional assembly completed its time without any article and sub article and in the chairmanship of the then supreme judge Khila Raj Regmi in the cabinet, the second election of constitutional assembly was performed in 2070 B.S.
Diplomatic notice of India
The second constitutional assembly drafted the constitution and released it in 2072 B.S. although Madhesh oriented the regional small parties did not want it to be released against their demand of amendment according to their political and constitutional benefit. On the other hand, Madhesh parties have been still blamed of hoisting Indian interest in Nepal and not faithful toward Nepalese people and sovereignty.
Although it was very rare in diplomatic world and international practice of politics, India sent her foreign secretary S Jay Shankar to Nepal as her chief diplomatic representative to delay the release of new constitution by negotiating with specific Nepalese leaders. But it was already very late and Nepalese leaders, especially, Oli, Prachand, Shushil Koirala, and Madhav Kumar Nepal refused his proposal of not favoring the Nepalese interest.
The Indian foreign secretary felt humiliation and insult and went back to Delhi by not receiving any political lollypop from Nepal. Nepal released the new constitution without any international political pressure and interferes in Aswin3 2072. One of the uttermost symbols is that India did not welcome the new constitution of Nepal and kept it just in diplomatic note. As a result, Nepal faced up an economy blockade with India fourth times in history of economy blockade. KP Oli became prime minister after the new constitution had released.
He faced the economic blockade by India. His strong steps to keep the nationality strong against the Indian move brought him to the peak of Everest in popularity all over the country. Later,The coalition of left parties Maoist Centre and UML attained historical nearly two third majorities in parliament in the general election of 2074 B.S. In contrast, India has not accepted the new constitution yet.
Both of the ruling power and bureaucracy of India did not consider two third majority of left party of Nepal since then because she is still seeking her ownership on it that is not possible now because Nepal has already stepped into international political and diplomatic world so rapidly that Nepalese leaders feel that the diplomatic relation in socio-economy with India must be reviewed as soon as possible and it must be grown with other super powerful country such as China and the United States as equal as India. According to the new economic and diplomatic policy Nepal signed a historical agreement in trade and transition with China in the leadership of Prime Minister Oli. By playing the role of a big brother in South Asia since her freedom from the British Empire, India has become envious of growing Cino-Nepal economic and diplomatic relationship and hence come up with the place to derail the constitution of Nepal by inviting political and constitutional instability.
Floating the iceberg
Moreover, Samant Kumar Goyal, the chief of research and analytical wing of India, came to Nepal by his private air on Kartik 4th and met Oli in Baluwatar in night handing over the dramatic script of dissolving the parliament already written in Delhi in the chamber of the foreign ministry S Jay Shankar.
Following Goyal, Manoj Mukunda Narvane, the supreme commander- in-chief of India had visited Nepal on Kartik 19th.The foreign secretary Harsha Bandhan Srigala visited Nepal in the formal diplomatic mask of Nepal – India relationship on Marg 11. India wants to derail the constitution of Nepal because Indian politicians feel that in any political and constitutional change in Nepal her role must be clear and beneficial to her. At the same time the Chinese diplomats visited in Nepal. Oli knew that the Chinese would want to keep the NCP unbroken rather than his continuity as prime minister. Having known the Chinese intention, Oli polarized himself toward south block leaving a lesson to China. In Nepal a proverb is very popular that is “The goat was disappeared at the same time when jackals hooted.” Therefore anyone interested in Nepalese politics and society can draw facts from the latest ongoing political and diplomatic events in Nepal. We only see the iceberg on the sea floating but its root is very long and deep on the bottom.
( Sanjay Prasad Paudel: MA, M.Phil, writes in social and political issue.)
